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This is just now starting to affect my work.... As a test and evaluation organization we have things come to us, or we go to them. Travel restrictions will affect what we can do.

I was out yesterday getting our taxes done. Traffic is lighter. Local price for gas is $1.99/gal.

Shelves in stores were thin on quite a few things. Yes, TP was pretty much gone. We ended up at H&R Block about 45 minutes early...... No other customers in the place, throughout our visit. In and out in record time. Went on base and stopped at the Subway store there..... No one in line.

Got notification that all on base training activities are cancelled. Teleworking is authorized for anyone so equipped -- any travel has to be approved with about 6 more levels of authority. I expect that going through the gate tomorrow morning will be less cogested, as all the parents of school age children will be teleworking since their kids aren't going to class for the next few weeks.

I'm still effectively working part time, between medical appointments for myself and my wife. Everything is a bit disjointed, but not drastically disrupted.

How are you being affected? Me, in rural VA, not very much.
 

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Over hear in the UK I work as a boiker engineer in central London. Thursday/Friday last week my company noticed a significant drop in work.
Seems unless the work is fairly urgent i.e No hot water/heating tenants are not wanting anybody in their house.
Went shopping today and supermarkets are packed with people panic buying - toilet rolls, pasta, tinned foods etc. Whilat clothes shops and other stores seem pretty empty for a Sunday afternoon.
People are generally starting to get very cautious/worried etc. My partner doesnt want to go to any crowded places and a trip to the local theme park today with the kids was put on hold.
I'm expecting things over here to develop in the coming week/weeks


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I have a hard time believing this will blow over quickly. The way it's being reported here Italy is in a seriously bad way....
I have to agree and I'm expecting a grim few months ahead

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How are you being affected? Me, in rural VA, not very much.
Not really affected much yet, but I work in oilfield and the combination of covid-19 blowing the world economy apart and the Saudi/Russian pissing contest over oil prices is going to shut everything down in the coming weeks. Things were already slow with oil at $55/bbl combined with our fuckwit federal government. At $32/bbl Alberta will be a ghost town.

I mostly work from home so the travel restrictions and ban on large gatherings make little difference to me, but a complete lack of work sure will. Eventually people will start getting sick in the local area and that will change things substantially.


I have a hard time believing this will blow over quickly. The way it's being reported here Italy is in a seriously bad way....
It's going to take probably a year or more for things to settle down again, maybe even 18-20 months. The more successful the efforts to slow the spread of it are, the longer we will feel the effects. If the projected numbers are correct healthcare systems the world over will be overwhelmed and it is going to be one nasty, bumpy ride. I get the sense that Italy got caught with their pants down, but even with the rest of the western nations now on alert and seriously prepping it is going to be a mess because no one can handle the number of cases that hit all at once when community transmission starts happening.

In Canada it is very conceivable that there will be 1 million people that eventually need hospitalization with ICU level care. We have ~5000 ventilators in the country. The math on that combination isn't going to work out well for anybody.

From what I can see the world has not seen this level of disruption and death since WWII. Even using projections on the conservative end of the scale we are looking at 25 million people dying from this, all in the next year or so.


Mark
 

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^^ this is the problem ^^
25 million dead is a cherry-picked number that’s 3% of the world population. This virus doesn’t kill 3% of the population. It kills up to 3.x % of those exposed to the virus. There’s a lot of factors that go into that number.

All worst case scenario (ie. Zero intervention). One person staying home is an intervention. Cancelling large events. Minor travel restrictions. Closing of sit-in portions of restaurants. Every grocery opening an hour later, closing an hour sooner is an incredibly large decrease in person-to-person contact time.

South Korea proved that intense mobilization can break-up the virus’ trajectory.

So. Could be a month. None of us really knows. I live in a place that’s gonna be 100° days in a month. I’m cautious, but not 25million-dead-worried. That’s insane.
 

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Yup...I agree with what Laggy said. People all over the world are now fully aware of the virus. No person to person contact will significantly reduce the transmission rate. Without transmission, the virus ends with that individual. Most people will recover just like the flu. A few wont make it. I think virus numbers will drop bigtime in less than a month.
I hope Im correct, or else Im probably getting laid off if this goes on for too long.
 

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^^ this is the problem ^^
25 million dead is a cherry-picked number that’s 3% of the world population. This virus doesn’t kill 3% of the population. It kills up to 3.x % of those exposed to the virus. There’s a lot of factors that go into that number.
Your math is defective. 25 million is 0.35% of the world's population. 25 million isn't cherry picked, it comes from an infection rate of 35% and a death rate of 1% of those infected, both numbers well on the low side of the published numbers so far. I wasn't being alarmist, I was being conservative with those estimates. I hope that number is completely wrong in the end, but there is a decent chance it isn't.

EDIT - Just wanted to add that I'm an engineer, I deal in math and science not hysterical bullshit spread by the idiot media. I will not ever be spreading their stupidity.


Mark
 

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I would rather be critized for over reacting than get fucked up from under reacting.

*shrug

In my world, my employer put us all on no travel mid last week. Only Sr mgmt is even allowed in our offices.

My major clients are in full emergency reaction mode. They are global CI, so they are feeding intel to us about what stuff is looking like in the far flung parts of the world.

My SIL is in Milan and can’t get out. They are in effectively marshal law. Going outside raises near immediate police attention.

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I'm conflicted over the entire subject - though the idea of 1,000,000's of deaths from a virus is obviously scary sounding, we can presume that 100,000,000 people die every year (assuming 10B population and average 100 year life span) discounting the numbers from this virus. The human population has had these pandemics before (black plague, Spanish Flu, WW2 (85 millions killed), etc...) and yet here we are with way too many people for the planet's resources to support.

Shutting down our entire way of life, and talk of martial law with all the abuses that can come from that - I'm not sure I'm really ready for or in favor of that (not that I have anything to say).
 

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NY/CT/NJ have shut down all bars, restaurants, movie theaters, schools/universities and banned gatherings of more than 50 people.
 

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Problem with Italy is they didn't get in front of it, social distancing does work. My daughter-in-laws parents live in southern China. They were confined to their apartment for a month or more and could only go out on certain days. Pretty tough for them but China has tremendously slowed the infection rate of the virus. Slowing it down buys time for other sectors to prepare and for more work on vaccines. With the focus on this I don't think it will be the "typical rush" time of 18 to 24 months for a vaccine. No doubt it will be a major disruption for a while and will impact large sectors of our economy. Think about restaurants but then think about the shift to meal delivery options, carryout drive thry etc. Groceries delivered from WholeFoods, WalMart and Amazon. I'm also predicting a significant increase in the birth rate in the next 9 to 12 months.

My other-in-law who is 91 refuses to skip getting her hair done!

So not all bad, we will change and adapt - that's what Americans are good at.
 

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My other-in-law who is 91 refuses to skip getting her hair done!

So not all bad, we will change and adapt - that's what Americans are good at. -
I see two different responses between my parents (both in 90's) and my in-laws (both in 80's). My mom and dad are not worried about this at all - I think they both understand that something is going to get them pretty soon, whether its a new virus, or just a regular stroke or heart attack, so they don't want to spend what may be the little time left being worried and fearful.

My in-laws may be the more typical of a fearful older group - concerned since they have not only old age going against them but multiple health issues that would make them even more vulnerable. They talk about cancelling everything except doctor visits (probably the most dangerous place in the world!) and possibly grocery shopping, and even the latter they're trying to outsource to me or my kids....

I would guess that most older people fall into one of those two groups
 

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Thus far other than the obvious hysteria of the dumbs at the grocery stores etc....

Customers still picking up and dropping off as per normal for March in MN

but if trackday season or race season here gets cancelled, or peoples incomes get so deficient they decide to not get work done to their motorcycles, then I may have to make some changes...

So far just a nuisance and some irritation, time will tell...
 

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Discussion Starter #19
Got ordered to telework until further notice..... Noticed that regular gas is now $1.88/gal...... Haven't seen that, in near 20 years.
 
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